the horse is here to stay!?
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.” In 1903 president of the Michigan Savings Bank advised Horace Rakham to avoid investing in Ford Company. Rakham ignored it and sold his real estate to invest $5000 in Ford that turned out to be $12.5 million in the next 16 years.
Ford to Ferrari every car engine capacity is measured in Horse Power (hp) since then. The question is what are the horses up to now? They are still around for special purpose and in limited use only. They are irrelevant for transportation.
Recent fears of Artificial Intelligence ,Machine Learning to takeover software programmer jobs, what would be the future of the white collars clocking 40 hours per week? No one was bothered about AI till 1997 when IBM Robot defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov. If Robot can master the most difficult job, what is left for it that is not a doable?
Before diving into AI, let us recollect if it is the first time Automation is challenging a human? In early 1900's, agriculture was the primary livelihood for more than 90% of population in USA. Later with the introduction of Tractor and other automation tools it reduced significantly to just 2%. Remaining 88% people lost their livelihood only to participate in Industrial Revolution, building roads, infrastructure building and gearing up to land on Moon. Just 2% people have become efficient to feed 100% people and more. In the recent memory of 1980's when ATM ( Automated teller Machines) was introduced, all the tellers and bank employees were freighted and opposed the automation. However eventually they realized, machines do better job of counting and dispatching with no/minimal errors 24X7. With the reduction of branch set up cost more and more jobs were created than those taken over by ATM. That left tellers with a better job to do and participate in increasing bank revenue & selling products to customers proactively.
Same was the case when early invention of Lawn Mover was invented in 1830's taking over livelihood of some people and creating the world of sports worth billions of $$. Same with dot com bubble taking over some jobs and creating millions of new jobs.
All these inventions show that every new automation that has disrupted the world has created new opportunities that were beyond our imaginations. Sometimes even simple enhancements took lot of time to ease up our lives. For example luggage( travel bags) that we use in day to day life were invented centuries ago. Only in 1970 Bernard D. Sadow got an idea to add wheels and ease our lives.
Modern day Sadow like Elon Musk, the Paypal guy who has challenged the Tortoise speed of banking system by introducing instant money transfer through just an email ID, working hard on his crazy project "Space X " to send humans to Mars are challenging everything that is routine or can be repeated.
Inventions so far were focused on taking over mechanical jobs from human and now are threating to take over intelligence jobs too. Is this a different ball game? In every science fiction movie, Aliens are fighting with a small group of scientist where as their target is larger world
Lets take a look at some professions that are not yet feeling the heat of Artificial Intelligence.
Elon Musk's TESLA is focused not just on electric cars but autonomous self driving cars. Only in USA 3.8 million people drive trucks for their livelihood. Musk can takeover all these jobs so that Truck can run for 24hrs a day with no breaks. Self driving cars sounds scary however it could be safer to human driver who is killing more than 1.25 million people in road accidents every year. Long-haul truck drivers to cab drivers, self driving cars world wide taking over millions of jobs from Humans shortly.
Medical Robot is already a reality serving many patients to understand their problems and providing health care with medicine. Surgical Robots is soon a reality and instead of a human, Robot will be performing the surgery. Robots are likely to do better job in performing any repeated task including analyzing MRI scans, preparing medicine to diagnosing the disease based on symptoms. Pharmacist to surgeon all the jobs are at stake with the evolution of AI in Medical World.Your fitbit has enough information to help them.
Attorney or Lawyers spend most of their time in reading and creating fool proof documentation than fighting the cases in the court. Those who have filed tax in Turbo Tax would have already experienced the efficiency of AI. Same would challenge Lawyers. With the integration of Blockchain, one can write smart contract without any need of a lawyer to take control in dealing with financial cases. Most of their work can be automated. By the way Alexa/Google Homes also provide enough information for AI lawyers.
Stock Exchanges floors were once upon a time full of traders like a carnival. Now they resemble meditation halls with large screens. Robots have taken over trading and they do better job selling/buying. Robots are making transactions with Robots in most of the Stock Exchanges.
Security & Soldiers. Knightscope is one of the AI based companies offering Robotic security that can use image recognition to identify potential criminals, scan vehicles , report any abnormal scenarios immediately and take appropriate action. They would be more efficient than a human security 24X7 with no scope for mistakes.
Amazon, Flipkart kind of companies have large warehouses. Robots are already working there 24X7 with 100% efficiency. Their drones would be ready to deliver goods in no time with no human intervention.
If you call any customer care or chat, it is Robot who is talking to you first and addressing most of the queries. These jobs were done by humans till recent time. They were one of the soft targets of AI.
In a nutshell, it is not just the white collared computer engineers are at risk with Robots that can clock 168 hours a week with no coffee break or even a single blink of eye. Every task that is repeated will be ready to be absorbed by AI. Tasks that need learning over a period of time, will be next candidates for AI. Every organization spends at least 30% of their capital on humans (salaries). AI is offering cheap and efficient labor that can work 24X7 to increase profits
To summarize, are we the new horses, who would be irrelevant soon or here to stay?. This disruption is different from a tractor or an ATM invention. This is probably one of the toughest fights in the human history for survival and everyone needs to think deeply to prepare for the future.
I personally would come to a good terms with AI than fighting against it. How nice it would be, if every human has a Robot tagged as his/her bread earner. Let the Robots do the hard jobs, creative jobs and repetitive jobs to generate wealth. Government can impose huge taxes on their productivity and distribute it to the owner of the Robot. We all can lead life by fulfilling our passions and not have to bother about working to live:)
- Pavan Joshi
Ford to Ferrari every car engine capacity is measured in Horse Power (hp) since then. The question is what are the horses up to now? They are still around for special purpose and in limited use only. They are irrelevant for transportation.
Recent fears of Artificial Intelligence ,Machine Learning to takeover software programmer jobs, what would be the future of the white collars clocking 40 hours per week? No one was bothered about AI till 1997 when IBM Robot defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov. If Robot can master the most difficult job, what is left for it that is not a doable?
Before diving into AI, let us recollect if it is the first time Automation is challenging a human? In early 1900's, agriculture was the primary livelihood for more than 90% of population in USA. Later with the introduction of Tractor and other automation tools it reduced significantly to just 2%. Remaining 88% people lost their livelihood only to participate in Industrial Revolution, building roads, infrastructure building and gearing up to land on Moon. Just 2% people have become efficient to feed 100% people and more. In the recent memory of 1980's when ATM ( Automated teller Machines) was introduced, all the tellers and bank employees were freighted and opposed the automation. However eventually they realized, machines do better job of counting and dispatching with no/minimal errors 24X7. With the reduction of branch set up cost more and more jobs were created than those taken over by ATM. That left tellers with a better job to do and participate in increasing bank revenue & selling products to customers proactively.
Same was the case when early invention of Lawn Mover was invented in 1830's taking over livelihood of some people and creating the world of sports worth billions of $$. Same with dot com bubble taking over some jobs and creating millions of new jobs.
All these inventions show that every new automation that has disrupted the world has created new opportunities that were beyond our imaginations. Sometimes even simple enhancements took lot of time to ease up our lives. For example luggage( travel bags) that we use in day to day life were invented centuries ago. Only in 1970 Bernard D. Sadow got an idea to add wheels and ease our lives.
Modern day Sadow like Elon Musk, the Paypal guy who has challenged the Tortoise speed of banking system by introducing instant money transfer through just an email ID, working hard on his crazy project "Space X " to send humans to Mars are challenging everything that is routine or can be repeated.
Inventions so far were focused on taking over mechanical jobs from human and now are threating to take over intelligence jobs too. Is this a different ball game? In every science fiction movie, Aliens are fighting with a small group of scientist where as their target is larger world
Lets take a look at some professions that are not yet feeling the heat of Artificial Intelligence.
Elon Musk's TESLA is focused not just on electric cars but autonomous self driving cars. Only in USA 3.8 million people drive trucks for their livelihood. Musk can takeover all these jobs so that Truck can run for 24hrs a day with no breaks. Self driving cars sounds scary however it could be safer to human driver who is killing more than 1.25 million people in road accidents every year. Long-haul truck drivers to cab drivers, self driving cars world wide taking over millions of jobs from Humans shortly.
Medical Robot is already a reality serving many patients to understand their problems and providing health care with medicine. Surgical Robots is soon a reality and instead of a human, Robot will be performing the surgery. Robots are likely to do better job in performing any repeated task including analyzing MRI scans, preparing medicine to diagnosing the disease based on symptoms. Pharmacist to surgeon all the jobs are at stake with the evolution of AI in Medical World.Your fitbit has enough information to help them.
Attorney or Lawyers spend most of their time in reading and creating fool proof documentation than fighting the cases in the court. Those who have filed tax in Turbo Tax would have already experienced the efficiency of AI. Same would challenge Lawyers. With the integration of Blockchain, one can write smart contract without any need of a lawyer to take control in dealing with financial cases. Most of their work can be automated. By the way Alexa/Google Homes also provide enough information for AI lawyers.
Stock Exchanges floors were once upon a time full of traders like a carnival. Now they resemble meditation halls with large screens. Robots have taken over trading and they do better job selling/buying. Robots are making transactions with Robots in most of the Stock Exchanges.
Security & Soldiers. Knightscope is one of the AI based companies offering Robotic security that can use image recognition to identify potential criminals, scan vehicles , report any abnormal scenarios immediately and take appropriate action. They would be more efficient than a human security 24X7 with no scope for mistakes.
Amazon, Flipkart kind of companies have large warehouses. Robots are already working there 24X7 with 100% efficiency. Their drones would be ready to deliver goods in no time with no human intervention.
If you call any customer care or chat, it is Robot who is talking to you first and addressing most of the queries. These jobs were done by humans till recent time. They were one of the soft targets of AI.
In a nutshell, it is not just the white collared computer engineers are at risk with Robots that can clock 168 hours a week with no coffee break or even a single blink of eye. Every task that is repeated will be ready to be absorbed by AI. Tasks that need learning over a period of time, will be next candidates for AI. Every organization spends at least 30% of their capital on humans (salaries). AI is offering cheap and efficient labor that can work 24X7 to increase profits
To summarize, are we the new horses, who would be irrelevant soon or here to stay?. This disruption is different from a tractor or an ATM invention. This is probably one of the toughest fights in the human history for survival and everyone needs to think deeply to prepare for the future.
I personally would come to a good terms with AI than fighting against it. How nice it would be, if every human has a Robot tagged as his/her bread earner. Let the Robots do the hard jobs, creative jobs and repetitive jobs to generate wealth. Government can impose huge taxes on their productivity and distribute it to the owner of the Robot. We all can lead life by fulfilling our passions and not have to bother about working to live:)
- Pavan Joshi
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